When Ramón Gil-Casares Satrústegui (Madrid, 1953) left the Spanish Embassy in Washington in 2017, he left behind him a rustic that was altering at a dizzying tempo. Trump had arrived at the White House just some months earlier in an electoral marketing campaign full of controversies and changing Barack Obama in the Oval Officewhose final time period lived from the American capital Gil-Casares. This diplomat was Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs between 2002 and 2004, throughout the final years of Aznar’s presidency, with whom he labored very carefully throughout his time as director of the International and Security Department of the President of the Government’s Cabinet between 1996 and 2002.
Ramón Gil-Casares held the place of ambassador of Spain to the United States between April 2012 and March 2017changing Jorge Dezcallar. Previously he had been ambassador of Spain in South Africa (2005-2008) and in Sudan (2011-2012); and after leaving Washington he was assigned as ambassador to Egypt (2018-2022). With the US elections lower than two days away, the former ambassador to the US responds to 20 minutes about the scenario in a rustic that he is aware of in depth and of which he acknowledges that “it has turn out to be polarized” and whose manner of doing politics is altering. In addition, it analyzes the historic electoral marketing campaign that has been skilled, with a change of candidate and an assassination try included, and what the return of Donald Trump or the arrival of Kamala Harris to the Presidency of the world’s first potential could imply.
The finish of one of the most advanced electoral campaigns in latest a long time has been reached with a technical tie. Has American society turn out to be polarized?The confrontation now may be very large. It is obvious that the whole lot may be very polarized. In the final rallies the two candidates despatched the identical message: “If the different wins, democracy is at risk.” If the results are very shut and the rely is unsure, many people might take to the streets on both facet. They are already asserting it. Of course Trump, but additionally the Democrats, who’ve a historical past of popping out when issues are going badly for them. This may be very harmful. American society has the feeling that they’ve to take into consideration themselves, as a result of they see that there’s a world round them that has risen up for them. Before it was Russia and now it’s China. The nation is now not what they stated of ‘the home on the hill’ to the relaxation of the world, however somewhat people need to be nicely in their very own house. See who are your allies and who are not, however let there be a quid professional quo and provides nothing in return. It is a rustic that has a special sensitivity than the one I lived in.
Is the manner of doing politics in the United States altering?Trump has determined that the mainstream media will not be going with him and doesn’t need to give interviews. Already in the first marketing campaign he devoted himself to launching completely exaggerated messages on native radio stations. This happens in the late Obama period, at a time when it’s already clear that the system doesn’t work. It was implied that globalization had been pushed and abruptly a monster like China emerged. That conventional concept that the United States was the most efficient nation is damaged, as a result of China is less expensive. Dozens of factories left and employees had been left with nothing. The dream of the American people is fading and there’s a entire change of mentality. The reference then is Trump, who appeals to the determined American. The Democrats are blamed and the historically conservative American accuses this celebration of drifting with all these completely different concepts of the world. wakened. And in that context, Trump wins with out a very clear message of what he desires, past decreasing taxes and elevating tariffs to steadiness and shield the nation.
You lived via the 2016 election marketing campaign that resulted in Trump’s victory. Do you see similarities between then and now?It was completely completely different. In that marketing campaign, the Democrats barely set foot in Pennsylvania, aside from Philadelphia and slightly bit of Pittsburgh. It has at all times been stated that ‘each baby born in Philadelphia comes out with a Democratic Party card between his tooth.’ However, not inside the state. Trump’s workforce went home to home altering this rhetoric. Now it has been the reverse. These elections started with Trump as the favourite and after the change of candidate the Democrats have had to make an incredible effort. The Democratic Party has taken to the streets, doing a job that it didn’t do with Hillary as a result of it was believed that she would win for certain. That’s why the shock was monumental. Another factor is that they’ve gotten what they want.
At that point there was speak of the hazard of Trump changing into president and now it’s talked about in the identical phrases, particularly taking into consideration the episode of the assault on the Capitol. What could Trump’s return to the White House imply?Bringing down the United States may be very troublesome. As a lot as it could be true, that I do not know, that he has had contacts with Russia or that he’s allied with some sequence of teams. Furthermore, even when it continues to add judges to the Supreme Court, it is not going to change all the laws. Many of the powers are state ones, reminiscent of the challenge of abortion and the sort of schooling. The nation will not be going to be burdened. Furthermore, Trump can now not run and this may take away the thorn from 4 years in the past. The Republican candidate’s obsession is the economic system and never elevating rates of interest. Everything else issues much less to him, or he has much less capability for imaginative and prescient. The actuality is that he creates the phantasm of change and the Democratic Party with Kamala Harris doesn’t, though the message is calmer. Trump’s hazard is outward. Although that may have penalties inside. An instance could be that he tried to break with free commerce and determined to impose tariffs on China of 60%. He has already stated that he’s going to impose them on everybody and on all merchandise, with out seeing in the event that they are strategic for him or not. And that’s normally responded to with reciprocity. He’s very obsessive about everybody taking benefit of them, and that is slightly worrying, though I do not assume he is going to do it. These messages that he offers outright could be modified or certified whereas in energy.
Including the departure from NATO that he has threatened?NATO will not be going to let him, as a result of it is aware of that they are not going to let him. The United States will not be an absolute monarchy. The states and massive cities rule rather a lot. Just as the institutioncorporations and the Department of State and Defense. Everyone will put stress on you and take away help if you want it. What you should have is the temptation to need to have results very quickly.
Could or not it’s with the Ukraine conflict to power an finish to the battle?He could attempt to get NATO to cease supporting Ukraine and speak to Putin and even power Ukraine to hand over territory. I do not know if he’ll do it and it is actually not that I believe it might or can’t be the resolution, however it’s not dominated out that he’ll need to do one thing rapidly to say: “I’ve already solved it.”
Trump has claimed to be struggling lawfare with all the judicial circumstances which have been opened in opposition to him. Do you assume this message has penetrated the inhabitants?Trump stated in his first election marketing campaign that he could go down Fifth Avenue in New York taking pictures photographs and they’d vote for him anyway. He has full confidence that he’s a special candidate.
There has been an try to make a simile between the arrival of Obama in 2008 and that of Harris now. Are two profiles comparable?Kamala did not know this was going to occur to her, as a result of in any other case she would not have wasted the final 4 years like she has. I do not know if it was as a result of they did not give him matters through which he could not excel or out of pure loyalty, as a result of Biden appointed him and he wished to run for re-election. The reality is that we’ve got not heard something about her, she has been little or no recognized and that is a chance that I consider Obama wouldn’t have missed. Nor has he been heard sufficient to know if he has the private attraction that Obama had.
One of the most vital sectors in these elections are Latinos, more and more lively in United States politics. However, the insurance policies of each candidates to entice them are very completely different and the assaults on migrants don’t take their toll at the electoral degree. Do you assume the points that after mattered to this neighborhood have modified?The Latino vote has at all times been completely different relying on origin. Someone of Caribbean origin will not be the identical as a Mexican. Just like the idea of Latino is completely different in the second era who now not speaks Spanish in order not to be discriminated in opposition to. Some are Democrats as a result of they perceive that they are extra favorable to immigration, however there are others who now not need extra immigration as a result of they’ve reached a sure center class standing. It is a really diverse world. Of course, what occurred at Trump’s rally just a few days in the past through which Puerto Rico was known as a “rubbish island” didn’t please anybody and that has frightened Republicans, who’ve come out to defend that it was not a them and have eliminated iron. There are increasingly Latinos in that conventional center class after which the vote is changing into nearer to the Republican one.
What attracts you to the Republican Party?The conventional view of the world. Family and spiritual values. There is a major share of Latinos who are evangelicals and that has a barbaric power as a result of they set up themselves in small communities round the church buildings in a considerably hostile world.
As ambassador in Washington, he skilled the bilateral relations between Spain and the United States very carefully. What have they been like historically?From allied international locations, however not first degree. The United States has a really particular alliance with the Anglo-Saxon international locations: the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. In addition to having it with States reminiscent of Israel, Japan and South Korea. Then there could be France and Germany, which fluctuate extra. And beneath them could be Spain, at a second degree however with good relations as a result of we are of their nice alliances; on the one hand, in NATO and, on the different, in that Western world that shares the identical values. Traditionally they’ve been good, though they are much less vital to them than to us. A Spaniard can take into consideration the United States for 1 / 4 of an hour a day, however they give thought to Spain for 2 minutes.
Where do you assume these relationships are presently?With Felipe González and Aznar, relations reached a really excessive level and with Zapatero they went down as a result of they thought that we weren’t a rustic that could be trusted, after leaving them stranded in Iraq and Kosovo from sooner or later to the subsequent. It took rather a lot to set up a great picture once more. In these years we’ve got seen the picture of Sánchez chasing Biden via the hallways and saying that he had had a gathering. That says all of it. The NATO Summit in Madrid went nicely, though we should keep in mind that it was one thing that Rajoy requested and obtained and the PSOE didn’t prefer it. Despite this, they later carried out nicely and performed very nicely, promoting all that comfortable energy that we’ve got in Spain and should be used. But hey, we are not Israel for the United States. If somebody invades us, they are not going to give us two plane carriers to shield us.
