How the ‘winner-takes-all’ system works and why it is key in US elections: every vote is decisive

A number of days earlier than presidential elections in the United Statesthe surveys predict considered one of the most shut elections in historical past: With each candidates separated by only one proportion level, it might be the particulars that tip the stability in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump.

One of the keys to the elections might be in the advanced US electoral systemwhich might be decisive and grant victory to considered one of the two candidates, even when he has fewer votes than his rival: it is considered one of the particularities of the system’winner-takes-all‘, for which a single vote in a particular state can find yourself deciding the presidency.

Citizens vote to resolve which candidate their delegates will help in the Electoral College

The very first thing to maintain in thoughts is that the American electoral system establishes that The presidential election is carried out by way of electoral delegates: every state is assigned a variety of electoral delegates based mostly on its demographic weight (its census), and The residents of every territory vote to resolve which candidate their delegates will help in the Electoral College, the physique that each one of them kind after the elections. This collegiate physique is the chargeable for formally electing the President (though the media, with their prediction fashions and approximations, achieve this on election night time itself).

In that Electoral College, which meets months after the election in a joint session on Capitol Hill from Washington DC, delegates convey their state’s help for considered one of the candidates. It is made up of 538 delegates, so the majority is at 270: The candidate who reaches that quantity is designated President of the United States.

“The winner takes all”: one vote can resolve a complete state

The key to this complete system is in the norm’winner takes all‘, the nice particularity of American elections: not like in Spain (the place there is a proportional system), in the US this majority system in which, as its English identify signifies, ‘the winner takes all’.

What does this imply? That The candidate who wins the vote in a state, even by a single vote, takes all the electoral delegates of that State. For instance, if Harris beats Trump by a single vote in California, she takes the 55 electoral delegates from that State.

The winner doesn’t need to be the candidate with the most votes

This system seeks, in concept, stability the demographic weight with the affect of all States in the election of the subsequent president. Besides, The system permits conditions in which the candidate with the most votes fails to win the presidency by not having sufficient delegates in the Electoral College.

For instance, suppose that ‘candidate A’ wins three states with 30 electoral delegates by a single vote, whereas ‘candidate B’ wins 4 states with 29 electoral delegates by hundreds of thousands of votes. Well, though ‘candidate B’ has the help of 4 states and a number of million extra voters, ‘candidate A’ could be the winner of the elections, since he has extra electoral delegates.

This assumption has occurred a number of instances in North American historical past: most not too long ago, in 2016, when Hillary Clinton got 3 million more votes than Donald Trumphowever the magnate achieved 304 electoral delegates in comparison with the Democrat’s 227. Trump managed to win extra states, although they’d fewer seats, although Clinton received the common vote and in the most populated states.

Nebraska, Maine and Washington DC, the exceptions

There are solely two States in which this majority system doesn’t exist: Nebraska and Mainein which delegates are distributed proportionallyas in the Spanish electoral system: in the final elections, for instance, Nebraska distributed its 5 electoral delegates, granting 4 to the Republicans and 1 to the Democrats, whereas Maine did the identical, distributing 3 to the Democrats and 1 to the Republicans .

It is additionally an exception D.C.: Although it is not a State itself, the American capital has 3 electoral votes, as established in the United States Constitution.

How a lot is every state ‘price’ in US elections?

The variety of electoral delegates of every State, which is equal to the sum of its congressmen and senators of mentioned State, It is established based mostly on the inhabitants census from every territory in every electoral interval, all the time including a complete of 538 delegates:

Peter’s Henar

1. California – 54 electoral votes.
2. Texas – 40 electoral votes.
3. Florida – 30 electoral votes.
4. New York – 28 electoral votes.
5. Pennsylvania – 19 electoral votes.
6. Illinois – 19 electoral votes.
7. Ohio – 17 electoral votes.
8. Georgia – 16 electoral votes.
9. North Carolina – 16 electoral votes.
10. Michigan – 15 electoral votes.
11. New Jersey – 14 electoral votes.
12. Virginia – 13 electoral votes.
13. Washington – 12 electoral votes.
14. Arizona – 11 electoral votes.
15. Massachusetts – 11 electoral votes.
16. Indiana – 11 electoral votes.
17. Tennessee – 11 electoral votes.
18. Wisconsin – 10 electoral votes.
19. Colorado – 10 electoral votes.
20. Minnesota – 10 electoral votes.
21. Maryland – 10 electoral votes.
22. South Carolina – 9 electoral votes.
23. Alabama – 9 electoral votes.
24. Oregon – 8 electoral votes.
25. Louisiana – 8 electoral votes.
26. Kentucky – 8 electoral votes.
27. Connecticut – 7 electoral votes.
28. Oklahoma – 7 electoral votes.
29. Kansas – 6 electoral votes.
30. Missouri – 10 electoral votes.
31. Arkansas – 6 electoral votes.
32. Iowa – 6 electoral votes.
33. Mississippi – 6 electoral votes.
34. Nevada – 6 electoral votes.
35. Utah – 6 electoral votes.
36. New Mexico – 5 electoral votes.
37. Nebraska – 5 electoral votes.
38. Maine – 4 electoral votes.
39. Montana – 4 electoral votes.
40. Idaho – 4 electoral votes.
41. West Virginia – 4 electoral votes.
42. New Hampshire – 4 electoral votes.
43. Rhode Island – 4 electoral votes.
44. Hawaii – 4 electoral votes.
45. Alaska -3 electoral votes.
46. Wyoming – 3 electoral votes.
47. North Dakota – 3 electoral votes.
48. South Dakota – 3 electoral votes.
49. Delaware – 3 electoral votes.
50. District of Columbia – 3 electoral votes.
51. Vermont – 3 electoral votes.

Critics defend the significance of the common vote and proportionality

Although in concept The system seeks to stability the demographics and weight of the statescritics of the system winner-takes-all They argue that in the finish the complete weight of the elections falls on the ‘swing states‘these ‘hinge states’ that wouldn’t have an outlined pattern and can go for one candidate or one other. Criticism alleges that the candidates give attention to these states and neglect the vote of different territories with the most outlined vote, which might discourage electoral participation.

But the nice criticism focuses on the chance that the system offers that the winner might be the candidate with the fewest votes: the system signifies that only one vote can outline the complete decision-making energy of a state and, subsequently, suppress any impact of hundreds of thousands of voters of the social gathering dropping in that state. Given this distortion of illustration, there are some different proposals, reminiscent of a system proportional to make use of or that the winner is merely whoever has the most votes in the complete nation.

However, there is no expectation of adjusting a system in place since the founding of the nationsy that, in accordance with a number of authors reminiscent of Maurice Duverger, tends to encourage dominance of the two-party system.